Friday, January 27, 2017

Is Kickfurther A Scam or a Legitimate Investing Option?

I had a comment left on a post suggesting that I needed to re-evaluate Kickfurther and the posts I've written about it.  Since it has been a while since I looked at the platform as a whole, I'm going to take some time and do so.

What Is Kickfurther?

Kickfurther is a platform that allows ordinary investors to assist businesses who need money to buy inventory.  The Kickfurther concept is that rather than lending money to the businesses, investors pre-purchase the inventory, and then return it to the business to sell on consignment.  As the inventory sells, the business repays the investors, with a profit margin.

For example, Wanda sells widgets.  She buys them from the widget factory for $10 and sells them for $20.  Generally speaking she sells 500 widgets a month.  She comes to Kickfurther and asks investors to finance 1,000 widgets for six months, so she asks for $10,000 and promises to pay back $11,000 by the end of six months. 

Wanda knows it will take a month from the day she places the order until the widgets arrive at her store,so the offer is written so no payments are due for two months.  Then, every month, Wanda is supposed to pay for the widgets she sold that month.  How much she is required to pay per widget is determined ahead of time, and that is expressed at the Percent Sold for Return--so that if Wanda's contract said she had to give KF $15 for every widget the PSR would be 73%.  If Wanda only had to pay $11 per widget the PSR would be 100%.  Obviously a lower PSR is better for investors.

If production is delayed, or people decide they don't want widgets anymore, and at the end of six months, Wanda hasn't sold enough widgets to repay the investors, the investors are allowed to vote on whether to allow Wanda to continue, or whether to cancel the offer.  If the offer is cancelled Wanda can either pay off the offer or return the unsold widgets to Kickfurther which will then try to sell them.If investors vote to continue, then Wanda continues to sell the widgets but no additional compensation, in other words, no extra interest or late fees, is due to the investors. 

What Problems With Kickfurther Have Arisen?

The bottom line is that in more than a few instances, Kickfurther investors have not been paid.  This list tells you the current statistics.  Right now, if you do the math, the "average" Kickfurther investor who invested in a random sample of offers is in the hole.  Investors who lose money are not a happy lot.

The question is who is to blame for the failed offers.  The reality is that investing has risks and anyone who thought these deals were sure things isn't very bright.  However, I'm not convinced that the risk I signed up for is the risk that ended up getting me.

In reading the information on Kickfurther's website, I learned that KF owned the merchandise and that the businesses were selling it on consignment.  I assumed (and you know what they say about assuming) that KF had proper contracts and safeguards in place, so that the only real risk we had was the risk that those widgets wouldn't sell.  My personal appreciation of the risk was that we'd probably get at least some of our money back on all offers, that most would complete and that KF would end up with odd and ends of junk no one wanted to buy on some offers.

I was wrong.

First of all, it seems KF has no enforcement teeth.  They say their contracts have improved and that they are now filing UCC-1 statements on the inventory, but there have been many cases in which the companies have just disappeared so to speak.  They either never paid anything or quit paying and did not return the inventory.  In some cases lawsuits have been filed, but my guess is that they will be fruitless since one of the main things needed for a successful suit is a financially viable defendant.

There just does not seem to have been much due diligence on the companies. Kickfurther has recently begun pulling credit reports but that is a new innovation.  They have done offers for companies that it turns out don't really exist.  There are companies that admit to selling inventory and using the money for things other than repaying investors.  Right now I have 17 offers that have gone bad.  Of those only 2 have turned unsold inventory over to Kickfurther.

In short, as it as played out so far (almost two years), while KF bills itself as buying inventory that is sold on consignment, in reality, as I preceive it, though not billed as such, and specifically denied by Kickfurther, it is basically making unsecured loans to small business, which is a risky business.  Established companies that do it successfully charge higher rates and have tighter controls.

I added the text in red at the request of Kickfurther. I receivd an email that said
it's been brought to our attention that one of your articles is incorrectly labelling Kickfurther as an small business loan which is not part of our model.  I've been requested to ask that you update the article to accurately represent the Kickfurther model. ...please alter the text so that the copy accurately reflects the Kickfurther model.
At least one of the Kickfurther Merchants of the Week I interviewed referred to their arrangment as a "loan".  Kickfuther has had no way to guarantee that the invested money was spent on the backed inventory and no mechanism for tracking sales and making sure the sales matched the payments.  While the paperwork may have said "consignment sale agreement", you know what they say about ducks, don't you?

If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, is it a consignment sales agreement?

Can Kickfurther Be Fixed?

Honestly, I don't know.  I don't know the realities of the business community.  However, some major problems I see:

No automatic payments on sales

I don't know the technological viability of the idea, though I tend to think it could be done.  Simply put, when one of our consigned items sells, Kickfurther needs to get notification and when the check for it hits the bank, KF needs to grab it.  Expecting a company that is having trouble paying the bills to pay us first obviously isn't working.

The overwhelming majority of companies, even companies which have paid as promised, have paid in a linear fashion.  In other words, if they had five payments due, they paid 1/5 in each payment.  I find it hard to believe that none of those companies sold more than what was necessary to remain in good standing with investors.

Clunky cancellation/collection procedures

Since payment is due only when a product has been sold, being late with the first payment, or having payment be less than the scheduled amount isn't necessarily a cause for alarm.  However, I have several offers that are quite late, without any explanation from the company.  In order to cancel the offer and make the balance due in 30 days, over half the dollar-weighted investors have to vote for cancellation.  My guess is that in most cases by the time that is done, the inventory is long gone and the money spent on the electric bill or some other pressing business need.  Any decent debt collector will tell you that the sooner you get onto a problem borrower, the greater your chance of success. 

I have one offer where the business owner admitted to selling some of the inventory and using the money to pay himself a salary.  Eventually, about six months ago, and after payments were eight months late,  the offer was cancelled.  KF just asked the backers to vote on a settlement agreement with this company, but they've given us no information on which to base a decision, despite requests on a private message board and email requests.  At this point I have no idea whether the offer we have is any good.

Some backers are pushing for a lawsuit, and if we have a viable defendant that may be the way to go.  However, the almount owed is under $20,000.  I doubt the contact calls for penalties, interest, attorneys fees etc.  Based on things the owner has said, my opinion as someone who knows something about lawsuits (but I'm not a lawyer and I don't give legal advice) is that we don't have a slam dunk case against him, which means to win the case we'll need to litigate, not just file suit and get a default judgment. Assuming we win, we'll then have a judgment, and collecting on those isn't necessarily easy, particularly when the defendant has few assets and could see bankruptcy as an alternative.

On the other hand, if businesses see that KF isn't willing to legally enforce its contracts, more will try not to follow them. 

Return is not commensurate with the risk

At this point, the average Kickfurther investor has lost money.  I'm in that number.  I'm not too far in the hole, but I'm there.  Clearly the reward isn't worth the risk.  Yes, if you managed to avoid the defaulting offers, you'd have a good return, but unless there are people out there who are more expert than I am, avoiding the bad offers is more a matter of luck than knowledge.  

Prosper used to let lenders bid on loans.  Unfortunately what happened is that the amatures doing the bidding bid the price down to the point that the defaults took the profits.  Early Kickfurther offers were often over 10% for 6 months.  When investors snapped them up in seconds, the returns dropped.  Now that investors aren't as quick to grab offers, returns are climbing.  However, I don't think they are up to the point they should be.

Kickfurther needs to develop some sort of rating and/or underwriting procedures and they need to price offers at a rate compatible with the risk. 

Too rich for my blood

Kickfurther recently switched to a "pack" system, where you buy the smallest possible portion of the consigned inventory, rather than contributing a certain dollar amount.  Going back to our widgets, If Wanda had only one type of widget then a "pack" would cost $10 and would consist of one widget.  If Wanda was buying 10 different types of widgets, then a pack would cost $100 and would have one of each type.  Recently there have been packs that cost several hundred dollars, and one that was over $1,000.  While there are certainly some KF investors playing with that much money, I don't think most of us are.  Given the luck I've had with KF so far, there is no way I'm putting subtantial money into any offer.

Update:

I started writing this post last night.  Tonight Kickfurther's CEO posted an update on reddit that stated that starting February 1, all offers would be backed by purchase orders and that Kickfurther would have tighter controls on the inventory and the money.  Further, he was hoping to raise enough money to pay out the failed offers.  You can see his message here.   I wish him the best, and I hope this new model works.  

Conclusion:

I've said before that Kickfurther is a place for money you can afford to lose.  I haven't seen anything that makes me change that opinion.  I think Kickfurther has potential but right now, on average, investors are not making money.  

I also think they are doing a horrible job with PR right now.  The CEO's post about improvments to the platform was a good thing, but then he asked for positive reviews at Trust Pilot (where I had previously written a cool review).  When folks went there, they found that Kickfurther's business development person had given Kickfurther a five star review.

I've given Kickfurther a lot of free and reasonably positive publicty.  Even before my red text addition above, I think it was clear to any reasonably intelligent reader that Kickfurther did not consider itself to be a lender.  Was it really necessary to tick me off by requesting that I change my post?

If you'd like to give Kickfurther a try, if you use this link, you'll get $5.00 toward your first offer.  If you have a business that is looking for a new way to finance inventory, use this link to see if KF will work for you. 
Disease Called Debt

Book of the Month: Step By Step Investing




Summary

Step by Step Investing is a  short book that encourages readers to get their finances in order, determine their goals and then to invest.  

For a book that is ostensibly about investing in stocks, little of the book is dedicated to teaching readers how to pick the best stocks.  Rather, Hogue encourages people to put the majority of their investment dollars in ETFs.  

However, Hogue does devote some time to explaining what some of the major statistics such as PE ratio, bid-ask spread, beta, and sales volume mean to the average investor.  

This is one of three Step By Step Investing books. 

Readability

While I read far faster than the average person, I finished Step by Step Investing in an hour while walking on a treadmill.  I doubt Hogue would encourage most of his readers to do that because each chapter ends with action steps--things you should do to prepare yourself to invest in the stock market, and things to do after you have invested.  Obviously, I did not do them  while on the treadmill, however, most are things that my husband and I have done over the years.  Some examples are:
  • Read through each investing rule [the rules are discussed in the chapter] and think about how it applies to your plan and your needs;
  •  Decide how much of your portfolio you will invest in stocks, bonds and real estate
  • Commit to only checking your portfolio value at set intervals.  
Nevertheless, the book was interesting and easy to read.

Is Step by Step Investing Worth the Money?

If you know nothing about investing in general and investing in the stock market in particular, Hogue's book is a good introduction.  Joseph Houge is blogger and the writing style is similar to that you see on blogs.  Hogue does not claim to have any secrets that will gain you an overnight fortune, which to me bolsters his credibility.  

If you are an experienced investor you may learn something new.  I liked Hogue's explanation of the difference between a mutual fund and an ETF and why he preferred ETFs.  I know that ETFs are the "in" thing now, I've just never been able to figure out why they were preferable to mutual funds.  Hogue's explanation made sense.

What this book will not do is tell you how to conduct an in-depth review of a company to determine whether buying stock in it at its current price is a good idea.  

The book is available as a Kindle download for $2.99, which I think is a reasonable price for the size and quality of the book.  I understand that self-publishing print books is expensive, but for the $6.99 Hogue charges for the paperback, I would expect a more in-depth, longer book.  

Rating of Step by Step Investing

You can check my book blog to get a better idea of what my ratings means.  I'm giving Step by Step Investing a B.  It was interesting and readable, however, it was shorter and contained less information than I would expect in a book. 

Source of Step by Step Investing

This month I am a Kindle Unlimited member and Step by Step Investing is one of the books available to members under their pay one price monthly membership.

Take Action:

Since the books I will be reviewing on this site all deal with personal finance in one way or another, I am going to include a "take action" section in each review.  That action will be at least one thing I will do as a result of reading the reviewed book.  A month later I will report, via another post, exactly what I did and what results (if any) I had.  

My take action as a result of this book will be to compare some Vanguard ETFs that are similar to our Vanguard Mutual Funds and see what the differences in performance are, and decide whether we want to switch at least some of our money from mutual funds to ETFs.  

The book links in this post are Amazon Associate links.  If you click them and purchase from Amazon, I get a small commission.

Disease Called Debt

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

5 Risk Free Investments


Face it; money is important.  When we get a few dollars ahead the last thing we want to happen is to lose our hard-earned cash to anything.  What we need are some risk-free investments.  Luckily, I have a list:
  1.  
  2.  
  3.  
  4.  
  5.  
Pretty impressive, right?  Ok, the title was clickbait but the list is real.  Every risk-free investment is part of that list.  In short, there is no such thing.  Every investment has risk, the trick to investing is to understand the risks of each investment and to be able to determine if the risks are worth the rewards.  Let's take a look at the risks and rewards of some popular investments.

I'm Putting My Money in a Safe!

Whether you are talking about a safe, a safety deposit box, a treasure chest in the backyard, or the space under your mattress,  there are people who like to keep their money close at hand, outside the view of the banking system and government.  Some of these people are hiding ill-gotten gains, but others are ordinary people who earned their money the honest way and paid income taxes on it.  

The risks of this investment include misplacing your money or, if you die, no one knowing where it is. If the wrong person gets wind that there is cash on the premises, robbery becomes a risk. Also, the money doesn't grow--while $10,000 would have purchased a nice car when I graduated from college, today's $10,000 car is definitely used.  

On the other hand, some families use versions of this investment to save for fun goals.  Putting cash saved by economizing in a visible place where the family can see it (and hopefully where others don't) can motivate the troops if you are saving for a special trip or a new toy.  

Bank Accounts Are Insured, I'm Putting My Money in the Bank!

Bank accounts are insured up to $250,000 per depositor per bank.  You can't lose money unless the federal government goes out of business, right?  Wrong.  It is true that if you put $1,000 in the bank, that $1,000 plus interest will be there when you go to withdraw it.  However, you will have to pay taxes on the interest, and inflation will erode the purchasing power of your principal.  As a long-term investment, bank accounts run a substantial risk of not growing fast enough to cover your needs.  

The certainty of bank accounts is their strength.  If your goals include spending a sum of money in the next 2-3 years, that money should be in the bank. It may not grow between now and then, but you are protected from the volatility of other investments.  If your child starts college a year from now, you don't have time to recover from market loses between now and then.  The risk of not having the money when the tuition bill comes due two years from now is greater than the rewards of a sensible stock market investment.

How About Bonds?

When you buy a bond, you are lending someone money.  If you lend money to the US government, you chance of being paid as promised is very high.  If you lend money to a company in financial trouble, your chance of being repaid is somewhat less.  

Bonds can be coupon bonds or zero coupon.  Holders of coupon bonds are entitled to payment of a certain amount of interest yearly, and repayment of the principal amount when the bond expires.  Zero coupon bonds do not pay interest yearly, it accrues and is paid when the principal is repaid.  

Bonds carry three risks:  Interest rate risk, inflation risk and credit risk. 

Credit risk is the risk that the issuer may not be able to repay the loan. The way to mitigate that risk is to invest small amounts of money in many bonds rather than large amounts of money in a few.  An easy way to do that if funds are limited is to invest in bond mutual funds or ETFs.  

Inflation risk is the risk that your money won't buy what it did when you invested it.  A way to mitigate that risk is to buy bonds with a variety of maturity dates so that you regularly have money available to re-invest.  Also buying shorter term bonds helps with inflation risk because when inflation goes up so do interest rates.  Investing in short term bonds allows you frequent access to your money, so that you can re-invest.

Interest rate risk.  As noted above, when inflation rises, so do interest rates.  If you purchase a bond today that pays 2% interest, as long as the issuer is financially viable, you will receive your 2% and, in the end, your principal will be returned.  However, if inflation rises or something else happens so that similar bonds are paying 3%, if you need to sell your bond, you will get less than face value for it.  Why should I buy your 2% bond when I can buy a 3% bond?  You have to make it worth my while by lowering the price.  In the same way though, if I have a 3% bond and interest rates drop, I can sell it for more than face value.  The shorter the term of the bond, the lower the interest rate risk, and the lower the interest, all  other things being equal.  

Surely You Don't Recommend the Stock Market?

Stocks are not the first thing that comes to most people's mind when "safe" investments are discussed. We all see the news about the stock market going up and down.  We have heard of people who have made a mint, and of people who have lost their shirts.  

Over the long haul, stocks are the only investment that consistently outpaces inflation and taxes.  If you are saving for retirement and not using stocks or stock mutual funds, you run a very real risk of not having enough money.  On the other hand, if you need money for something next year, if you invest the money in stocks, you run a very real risk of not having enough money due to a routine short-term drop in the market.  In short, stocks are a long term investment, not a place for money you will need soon.

There have been volumes written about how to invest in the stock market and I won't repeat them here except to recommend picking a good low-cost index fund, investing your money and leaving it alone. 

I Read on the Internet About a Great New Investment...

You and thousands of other people.  Some things to keep in mind when evaluating any investment opportunity:

Risk vs. Reward

In general, the higher the potential reward for an investment, the higher the risk.  Lottery tickets have a very low chance of paying off, (and a very high chance of losing all your money) but if your powerball ticket hits, your reward is tremendous.  You aren't going to lose money in a bank account, but you won't get much interest either.  

Supply and Demand

If the supply of something exceeds the demand for it, those who own it will have to lower the price to increase demand.  If the demand for something exceeds the supply, the price of it will go up.  Put another way, if you offered me a goose for $20 right now, I wouldn't take it.  I don't want one and I don't think I could sell it for more than $20 immediately and I don't want a goose!  However, if you proved to me and to others that you had a goose that truly would lay a golden egg, we'd get in a bidding war for it and I'm sure I'd end up paying you more than $20 for that delightful bird. 

Normalization

In general things tend to normalize over time.  What that means is that if you find a "hot" investment, it probably won't be "hot" for long.  If you take a risk and buy XYZ stock when no one else wants it, you'll make a pretty profit when "everyone" discovers that the company is great and starts bidding up the price.  However, those who start buying it later in the rally won't make nearly as much; eventually the price of the stock comes into line with the realistic profits of the company.  

A good example of normalization and its cousin "supply and demand" is Kickfurther, about which I've written extensively on this blog.  During the summer of 2015 Kickfurther was blowing and going. Offers of 10% for six months were not uncommon and some companies offered even more.  It was great and those of us who were investing were getting rich fast.

Then those businesses noticed that offers that went live at 4:00 p.m. were fully subscribed by 4:00:20.  They did what any sensible business would do, they lowered the potential reward.  It was ok with them if it took a full minute for the offer to fill.  Slowly the average offered interest dropped.  Then the defaults started to hit and investors started to question the viability of the platform.  At the very least, they calculated the return necessary to make a profit given the default rate.  Offers began to languish unfilled.  Interest rates began to rise.  

If an investment sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  

So, the best risk-free investment?  There isn't one. However there are a variety of investment products available, each with its own risks and possible rewards.  Pick the right ones for you. 


Disease Called Debt